2019 Election Summary & Analysis
This periodic report is a private briefing for friends and key members of top causes.
Last night’s election was a stunning turnout – literally. Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes predicted just 31% of the state would show up to the polls. Instead, 42% of Kentuckians statewide came out to vote.
In 2015 statewide election, total votes cast: 973,692; last night total votes cast: 1,442,622.
Beshear breaks through but no concession; election contest discussed
Final numbers show Beshear won by a slight margin 49.2% – 48.8% or just over 5,000 votes. While news outlets called the Governor’s race for Andy Beshear, Bevin told a crowd at Republican HQ he would not concede the election, citing “irregularities” that “have been substantiated.” Bevin has seven days after the election to request a recanvass, which checks that vote totals from each machine in the state were properly recorded. Republican Senate President Stivers indicated a contest could be possible and ultimately up to a board of House and Senate members (both chambers have super majorities) to decide. All this while Beshear was giving a victory speech. In the days ahead, the bitter rivalry will not soon vanish. Read more on possible next steps here and here.
Kentucky Election Map - 2019 Results: Interestingly, the Independent candidate John Hicks took 2% of the vote or 28,426 total. This reduced the gap between candidates, perhaps with a Ross Perot effect.
Difference makers
The New York Times surmised early on “an unpopular man vs. an unpopular party.” Indeed, we saw last night. In 2015, Bevin bested Democratic challenger Jack Conway with a decisive 8% victory. In 2019, despite carrying 100% of the down ballot races, the GOP was unable to proclaim victory at the highest level. Here are some counties that made a difference for Beshear:
Madison Co – this county was widely credited with giving Republican Congressman Andy Barr the extra votes (almost 7,000) he needed to beat Democratic challenger Amy McGrath in 2018. Trump rallied in Richmond at EKU right before Barr’s election. It went for Beshear last night. Other areas of central Kentucky that went for Barr over McGrath but Beshear over Bevin are Scott County and Woodford County.
Louisville – that Jefferson County went for Beshear is no surprise. Its heavy turnout gave Beshear 98,772 more votes there than Bevin, a major margin to overcome.
East Ky – popular Eastern Kentuckian and House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins campaigned for Beshear after losing to him in the primary. Most of the east went for Adkins. Last night, Beshear won Boyd, Carter, Rowan, Elliott, Bath, Nicholas, Wolfe, Magoffin, Floyd, Breathitt and Knott (General election on left, primary on right).
Northern Ky – a conservative area more and more, but two of three counties for Beshear last night: Kenton and Campbell (Boone went for Bevin). In a debate a week before the election, Bevin said tolls would be necessary to pay for replacement desperately needed for the Brent Spence Bridge (Kentucky - Cincinnati). Some said that would impact Bevin negatively in the region.
Low margins in parts of western Kentucky – this area, known formerly as the Democrats’ “Rock of Gibraltar” but now a republican stronghold – had an impact for Bevin. He won counties like Muhlenberg (4,551-4,019), Christian (7,974-6,023), Daviess (17,238-16,013), and Calloway (6,344-5,160) but not by as many votes as expected. Hancock County in the west voted for Adkins in the primary and then for Beshear in the general. Warren County/Bowling Green, among the fastest growing areas of the state, gave the edge to Beshear.
No strangers to close elections
Matt Bevin in good humor last night remarked to the crowd, “Would it be a Bevin race if it wasn’t a squeaker?” – a reference to the 83 votes he got over his lead challenger Jamie Comer to win the 2015 gubernatorial primary.
Andy Beshear also had a close call in 2015 against Whitney Westerfield a candidate with little name recognition at the time and fewer resources. Beshear won the AG’s race by just 2,194 votes (50.1%-49.9%).
Was there a “Trump bump?”
Weeks ago, the Mason-Dixon showed a dead heat of 46%-46% and other polls were within the margin of error, revealing that Bevin gained ground since the primary. Then 20,000 people attended President Trump’s election-eve rally at Rupp Arena in Lexington Ky – analysts across the state thought that could give Bevin the win. It is certainly credited with a push (perhaps larger turnout out west, where it counted big for Bevin) but not enough to cross the finish line. Even with Trump’s incredible popularity, many Kentuckians didn’t connect the close White House relationship with hometown issues. Trump endorsed every candidate in the down ballot races, all of whom were victorious, and appeared with them at the Lexington airport.
Implications of a split government
Before the election, some Republicans in leadership made comments that they won’t work with a Democratic governor. This could take shape in many forms. One is that Kentucky only requires a simple majority, 51 votes in the House, to override a veto. With supermajorities in House and Senate, the Republicans are in good position to override bills that Beshear vetoes.
Biggest historical victory: Daniel Cameron, Attorney General
Daniel Cameron made history as Kentucky’s first African American Attorney General and first Republican Attorney General since 1948. Cameron, a McConnell protégé (former general counsel to the Majority Leader), ran against Greg Stumbo – former AG and former Democratic House Speaker who lost his House seat the 2016 Trump landslide. The malicious race garnered much attention throughout the months leading up to election. Cameron received a personal endorsement from President Trump in the oval office and on Twitter, and he got to speak briefly during Monday’s Trump rally.
Biggest surprise: Michael Adams, Secretary of State
From the start, Democrats pinned their hopes of at least one sure-bet statewide official on Heather French Henry. Name recognition favored her heavily as former Miss America and wife of former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry. She also had the distinction of serving two different administrations (Steve Beshear and Matt Bevin) as a top official in Veterans Affairs. In the May primary, she won 71% of primary votes, 263,419 compared to Michael Adams 41.3% primary day with 94,404 votes. Yet on election day, Michael Adams beat the odds big time, winning 52.2% to 47.8%.
Biggest one-liner applause: Jacqueline Coleman, Beshear ticket Lt. Gov candidate
“You have to admit, I put up a pretty good fight for a pregnant lady.” Coleman announced her pregnancy on the campaign trail and is due in February.
Down ballots indicate strong GOP performance, favorability
Kentuckians by and large seem to approve of the job that the other Republican statewide officers are doing: Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Treasurer Allison Ball, and Auditor Mike Harmon all won handily.
Special elections
Boone and Kenton split the Governor’s vote (Boone went Bevin, Kenton went Beshear) but district 63 which covers both counties went solidly R for Kimberly Banta. Interesting to note that Northern Ky showed up in huge numbers compared to usual its performance – low turnout has plagued this region for years.
2015 Boone 25% vs. 2019 Boone 38%
2015 Kenton 25% vs. 2019 Kenton 37%
2015 Campbell 29% vs. 2019 Campbell 41%
Republican Samara Heavrin won soundly to replace retiring Republican Tim Moore in western House District 18 (Hardin County / Grayson County).
Ky Court of Appeals Judge Shea Nickell beat current Hopkinsville state Senator and Chair of the Judiciary Committee, Whitney Westerfield for a spot on the Kentucky Supreme Court. This was to fill the vacancy of Bill Cunningham who retired earlier this year.
Eastern Ky communities vote to legalize alcohol sale
Elkhorn City, population 900, is now wet after last night’s referendum. Rather than traveling to Virginia this holiday season, residents there will be able to find holiday “spirit” at home. A wet/dry referendum also legalized the sale of alcohol in Lee County and Jackson County.