Paul Steady, Trump Falls – Both Maintain Leads in Latest Poll

Paul Steady, Trump Falls In Poll Conducted Just Under One Month Until Election Day.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul’s lead over Lexington Mayor Jim Gray remains nearly unchanged from the September Babbage Cofounder Pulse Poll as the incumbent maintains a 6.5 percentage point lead. Senator Paul’s lead was 7 points in September.

Cofounder Pulse Poll Results – U.S. Senate:

October 12-14 Poll – Rand Paul 33%, Jim Gray 26.5%, Undecided 40.5%

September 14-16 Poll – Rand Paul 32.6%, Jim Gray 25.3%, Undecided 42.1%

Donald Trump continues to lead Hillary Clinton in the Presidential Race, however, that advantage has narrowed to 3.4 percentage points. Trump’s lead was 11.5 points in the previous Cofounder Pulse Poll.

Cofounder Pulse Poll Results – U.S. President

October 12-14 Poll – Donald Trump 31.8%, Hillary Clinton 28.4%, Gary Johnson 5.7%, Jill Stein 4.3%, Undecided 29.8%.

September 14-16 Poll – Donald Trump 35.4%, Hillary Clinton 23.9%, Gary Johnson 7.4%, Jill Stein, 3.2% Undecided 30.1%

“Just as polls around the country reflect a change in the Presidential race, so does this one,” said Bob Babbage, Leading Lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder. “Trump’s lead in Kentucky has narrowed. Polling has definitely been fluid all year long, so unusual events could move the Kentucky numbers yet again.” Babbage continued, “Meanwhile the U.S. Senate race has barely shifted in the last three weeks with Senator Paul still ahead of Mayor Gray.”

The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age & gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).

In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.

Below you’ll find a breakdown of various cross tabs for your reading enjoyment.

 U.S. Presidential Race:

Overview of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse Presidential Poll

Inferred gender breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse Presidential Poll

Inferred urban density breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse Presidential Poll

Inferred income breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse Presidential Poll

 U.S. Senate Race:

Overview of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse U.S. Senate Poll

Inferred gender breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse U.S. Senate Poll

Inferred urban density breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse U.S. Senate Poll

Inferred income breakout of October 12, 2016 Cofounder Pulse U.S. Senate Poll

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