New Kentucky Poll – Trump and Paul Continue to Hold Leads

Senator Rand Paul leads Lexington Mayor Jim Gray by 7 percentage points and Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 11 percentage points in the latest Cofounder Pulse Poll.

A Babbage Cofounder Pulse Poll conducted September 14-16 finds Republican Donald Trump and incumbent U.S. Senator Rand Paul continue to lead their Democratic opponents in Kentucky with just under 50 days until the November 8 election day.

Both polls show a sizable group of potential voters who remain undecided.

U.S. Senate Race Poll Results:

Paul – 32.6%

Gray – 25.3%

Undecided – 42.1%

Kentucky Presidential Race Poll Results:

Trump – 35.4%

Clinton – 23.9%

Johnson – 7.4%

Stein – 3.2%

Undecided – 30.1%

“As we draw closer to Election Day, Senator Paul and Donald Trump continue to hold strong leads in their respective races,” said Bob Babbage, lead lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder. “The homestretch of the campaign is now upon us and voters across the Commonwealth should expect to hear much more from all of the candidates in the weeks to come.

The previous Babbage Cofounder poll of Kentucky’s views on the two races was conducted August 2-4. That poll showed Donald Trump with a 16-point edge over Hillary Clinton and gave Rand Paul a 19-point advantage over Mayor Jim Gray. Unlike the August poll, the most recent survey included candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in the Presidential race and allowed prospective voters to select “I don’t know” in the US Senate race.

The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age & gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).

In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.

Below you’ll find a breakdown of various cross tabs for your reading enjoyment.

 U.S. Presidential Race:

Overview of September 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

Inferred urban density breakout of September 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

 U.S. Senate Race:

Overview of September 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll with results tab

Inferred urban density breakout of September 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll

Inferred income breakout of September 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll

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