Cofounder Pulse Poll – Trump and Paul Hold Commanding Leads in Kentucky Presidential and Senate Poll

The latest Babbage Cofounder Pulse Poll finds Donald Trump and incumbent Senator Rand Paul with commanding leads in Kentucky Presidential and Senate races over their Democrat opponents with just three months until the November 8 election day.

Paul leads Lexington Mayor Jim Gray by 19 percentage points (59.8% to 40.2%) and Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 16 percentage points (41.2% to 25%).

“The Republican trend in Kentucky in federal elections has steadily increased for more than 20 years. Although anything can happen during the campaigns, Cofounder’s latest Pulse Poll shows that Senator Paul and Donald Trump are well-positioned to continue that trend,” said Bob Babbage, lead lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder.

The survey was conducted from Tuesday, August 2 to Thursday, August 4. The previous poll of Kentucky’s views on the Presidential race, conducted July 5-7, showed Donald Trump with a 5 percentage point edge over Hillary Clinton. The most recent Cofounder Pulse Poll of the U.S. Senate race, conducted June 22-24, saw Senator Rand Paul with a 1-point advantage over Mayor Jim Gray. Unlike the previous results, the most recent poll did not give participants the option of voting undecided.

The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age & gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).

In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.

Below you’ll find a breakdown of various cross tabs for your reading enjoyment.

 U.S. Presidential Race:

Overview of August 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

Inferred gender breakout of August 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

Presidential urban density

Inferred urban density breakout of August 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

Inferred income breakout of August 2016 Cofounder Presidential Poll

 U.S. Senate Race:

Senate Poll overview

Overview of August 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll with results tab

Senate gender breakout

Inferred gender breakout of August 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll

Senate density breakout

Inferred urban density breakout of August 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll

Senate income breakout

Inferred income breakout of August 2016 Cofounder US Senate Poll

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