Presumptive Republican nominee for President Donald Trump leads the Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Kentucky according to our latest Cofounder Pulse Poll released today. The survey was conducted from Tuesday, July 5 to Thursday, July 7.
Trump, who won the state’s March Republican Caucus by 4% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz, leads Clinton ahead of his July visit to Lexington, Kentucky.
“Kentucky has trended Republican in federal elections for more than 20 years and Donald Trump is certainly taking advantage of that momentum,” said Bob Babbage, lead lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder.
Clinton sparked a controversy in recent months, particularly in energy-producing regions such as Kentucky, over comments concerning coal companies and coal miners. Clinton back-tracked from those remarks in the lead up to the Commonwealth’s Democratic Presidential Primary in May, which she narrowly won over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).
In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.
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